[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 June 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 26 09:48:43 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JUNE 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 26 JUNE - 28 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jun: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jun 27 Jun 28 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity Very Low over the last 24 hours and expected
to continue at that level for next 3 days. * Region 999 is stable
with simple Alpha magnetic configuration, unlikely to significantly
flare, but providing some extra EUV to boost the ionosphere and
will rotate off the limb in the next couple of days. * Solar
wind speed (Vsw) slowly increased from 350 to 400 km/s for most
of the day till 17UT as the recurrent coronal hole high-speed
solar-wind stream (HSSWS) took effect. There was a sharp increase
in Vsw from 17-22UT to 550km/s, likely to disturb the geomagnetic
field. * The IMF Bz was oscillatory zero till 17UT when strong
north-south polarity reversals occurred coincident with the Vsw
increase. * The STEREO-B spacecraft shows enhanced Vsw about
a day ahead of the Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 22211222
Darwin 5 2221122-
Townsville 9 2332222-
Learmonth 6 32210222
Camden 4 22210112
Canberra 5 22200222
Hobart 4 12211220
Casey(Ant) 6 22311122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Camden 5 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1100 0123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet at mid and
equatorial latitudes over the last 24 hours. Polar latitudes
were Quiet to Minor Storm as IMF Bz fluctuations took effect.
* Slower than expected increase to Unsettled conditions as Vsw
rose more slowly than expected. Increase to near 500km/s at the
start of the UT day (ACE spacecaft) and expected elevated speeds
for at least a day (STEREO-B spacecraft) indicate Unsettled conditions
for the next couple of days at mid and equatorial latitudes.
* The inner magnetosphere at geostationary orbit was disturbed
for the last day (GOES spacecraft) due to magnetopause compressions
from the solar wind fluctuations associated with the coronal-hole
high-speed solar-wind stream and this may also translate soon
into ground level disturbances. * The IMF Bz has been fluctuating
strongly since 17UT and may disturb polar latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jun 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jun 10 about 5% above predicted monthly values
27 Jun 10 about 5% above predicted monthly values
28 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australasian region ionosphere was mostly normal over
the UT day and slightly enhanced over the expected average, reversing
the trend of the last few days. Daytime MUFs were slightly below
average and nighttime MUFs were enhanced by more to cause an
overall strengthening. This was more prominent at sub-equatorial
latitudes (across Learmonth, Townsville, Niue). * Spread-F was
again prevalent in the north at equatorial and sub-equatorial
latitudes, and also at night at many mid-latitude stations. *
The recurrent solar coronal hole (see geomagnetic section) did
not take geomagnetic effect yet but should do today and tomorrow,
possibly enhancing MUFs Thu/Fri. * MUFs in the Antarctic were
above predicted monthly values. Strong IMF Bz north-south fluctuations
from 22UT, associated with a solar wind speed sudden increase
should cause geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances in Antarctica
and strong positive IMF By east-west polarity should skew the
twin-cell ionospheric convection pattern away from normal.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jun
Speed: 335 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 40000 K Bz: -1 nT
Magnetopause compressions during the day reached to within 1-2 earth radii of geostationary orbit.
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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