[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 June 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 25 09:46:00 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JUNE 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 25 JUNE - 27 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jun: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jun 26 Jun 27 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 65/0 65/0 65/0
COMMENT: Solar activity Very Low over the last 24 hours and expected
to continue at that level for next 3 days. Region 999 is stable
with simple Alpha magnetic configuration and unlikely to significantly
flare. Solar wind decreased from 360 to 320 km/s during the day
but then increased to 360km/s at 19UT, probable onset of the
expected recurrent coronal hole high-speed solar-wind stream
(HSSWS). There was a concurrent increase in solar wind density.
The IMF Bz was near zero till 12UT when a mild southward turning
occurred, followed by polarity reversals and then a strong southward
turning at 22UT, probably associated with the HSSWS. So strong
IMF-geomagnetic merging should start the UT day. The STEREO-B
spacecraft shows disturbed IMF and enhanced particle densities
ahead of Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 11110112
Darwin 3 11110112
Townsville 5 12211222
Learmonth 4 11110123
Camden 2 11000112
Canberra 1 01000111
Hobart 1 10001111
Casey(Ant) 4 12111211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1200 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jun 7 Quiet
26 Jun 9 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours
but expected to increase to partially Unsettled today. The ACE
and SOHO spacecraft showed a sharp increase in solar wind speed
to 360km/s at 19UT, probable onset of the expected recurrent
coronal hole high-speed solar-wind stream (HSSWS). There was
a concurrent increase in solar wind density. This velocity is
not high yet but possibly an indication of moderately high speeds
to follow although the coronal hole trailing region 999 looks
fairly small. The IMF Bz showed a strong southward turning at
22UT, probably associated with the HSSWS. So strong IMF-geomagnetic
merging should start the UT day and polar regions may become
disturbed early. The STEREO-B spacecraft in place to observe
upcoming condtions 1-2 days ahead is observing disturbed IMF
and enhanced solar wind particle densities although speeds are
not high.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jun -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jun 0 about 10% below predicted monthly values
26 Jun 4 near predicted monthly values
27 Jun 4 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australasian region ionosphere was mostly normal over
the UT day. Spread-F was again prevalent in the north at near
and sub-equatorial latitudes and at night at many mid-latitude
stations. There were short, sharp near-dusk MUF enhancements
at near-equatorial latitudes and some mid-latitude stations.
There was a sub-equatorial band of lower MUFs (across Learmonth,
Townsville, Niue) although regions either side (Darwin, PNG and
mid-latitudes) were normal. * MUFs at mid-latitudes were mostly
near predicted monthly values with some stations slightly below
or above. Expect mostly normal HF conditions with MUFs slightly
below monthly values today. A recurrent solar coronal hole (see
geomagnetic section) will start to take effect and possibly enhance
conditions to median levels Thu/Fri. * MUFs in the Antarctic
were above predicted monthly values. A strong IMF BZ southward
turning at 22UT, causing merging with the geomagnetic field,
coupled with onset of rising solar wind speed may cause geomagnetic
disturbances in Antarctica and disturbed ionosphere as twin-cell
convection commences.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jun
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 40900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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