[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 June 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 27 09:54:14 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JUNE 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun: 65/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jun 28 Jun 29 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 65/0 65/0 65/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels for the last
24 hours. Due to the effect of a recurrent coronal hole the solar
wind speed increased from 550 km/s to around 650 km/s by 0900
UT and stayed between 600 and 650 km/s during the rest of the
UT day today. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magentic field (Bz) showed minor to moderate (upto around +/-
9nT) fluctuations on both sides of the normal value until around
0900UT. Bz showed minor positive and negative fluctuations during
the rest of the day as well but stayed more on the positive side.
Solar wind stream is expected to remain strong on 27 and possibly
28 June due to the continued effect of the coronal hole. Solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the next
3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: Mostly quiet to
unsettled with an isolated active period on most
locations between 0800 and 1200UT and storm conditions at high
latitude stations during this period.
Estimated Indices 26 Jun : A K
Australian Region 12 33342222
Darwin 11 33242222
Townsville 14 33342332
Learmonth 16 33352232
Camden 12 33342221
Canberra 12 33342221
Hobart - --------
Casey(Ant) 12 33332--2
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 20 (Quiet)
Camden 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gnangara 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 4331 1233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jun 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled with the some chance
of isolated active periods on mid and high latitudes.
28 Jun 8 Quiet to unsettled
29 Jun 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at quiet to unsettled
levels on most locations with active conditions on mid-latitude
locations and storm conditions on high latitudes between 0800
and 1200UT today. This effect seems to have eventuated due to
the effect of the high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent
coronal hole. The effect of this coronal hole is expected to
keep the geomagnetic activity levels enhanced for the next 2
days with conditions mostly at upto unsettled levels on most
locations with the possibility of isolated active periods on
mid- and high-latitudes. Mostly quiet conditions are expected
thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on
most locations for the next three days with the possibility of
some degradations and depressions on high and mid latitude locations
on 27 and 28 June due to an expected continued enhancement in
the geomagnetic activity on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jun 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with some enhancements
at times.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jun 5 near predicted monthly values
28 Jun 5 near predicted monthly values
29 Jun 7 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions around Aus/NZ regions are expected to
remain mostly normal during the next three days with some possibility
of isolated minor degradations, especially in the southern Aus/NZ
regions on 27 and 28 June due to an expected continued rise in
the geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun
Speed: 387 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 101000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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