[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 June 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 17 09:04:38 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JUNE 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun: 65/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours,
expected to continue next 3 days. Solar wind speed remains elevated
due to a recurrent coronal hole. Solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: Mostly quiet to
unsettled with an isolated active period.
Estimated Indices 16 Jun : A K
Australian Region 11 22242323
Darwin 7 22231222
Townsville 13 32332333
Learmonth 14 32342333
Camden 10 22241223
Canberra 11 22242323
Hobart 10 21242223
Casey(Ant) 13 333323--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 44 (Unsettled)
Alice_Springs 13 (Quiet)
Culgoora 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Camden 50 (Unsettled)
Gnangara 108 (Major storm)
Canberra 54 (Unsettled)
Hobart 94 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 20 4543 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jun 12 Unsettled
18 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were generally Quiet to Unsettled
over the last 24 hours with an isolated Active period near 11UT.
The elevated activity levels are due to a recurrent coronal hole.
Expect generally Unsettled conditions today (17 Jun) with a return
to mostly Quiet conditions 18-19 Jun. Isolated Minor Storm conditions
possible at high latitudes 17-18 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal Normal Fair
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jun 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jun 0 near predicted monthly values
18 Jun -5 near predicted monthly values
19 Jun -5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The Australian ionosphere was mostly normal over the
UT day. MUFs were near predicted monthly values or slightly enhanced
(overnight). HF conditions were mostly normal with the exception
of the Antarctic region which saw some significant degradation
of HF conditions resulting from enhanced high latitude activity.
Some range Spread-F was observed in the S.Aus/NZ region overnight.
Expect mostly normal HF conditions and MUFs near predicted monthly
values 17 Jun. Some minor depressions possible 18-19 Jun and
continuing poor ionospheric support in Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: 619 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 253000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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