[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 June 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 16 09:37:19 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JUNE 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 16 JUNE - 18 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jun: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Very Low solar activity is expected over the next 3 days. Solar
wind velocity remains elevated, increasing from 550km/s at 0000UT
to be 650km/s at the time of this report. The decrease in solar
wind density and continued high speed indicate the anticipated
recurrent coronal hole is now in geoeffective position. Bz
fluctuated between +/-6nT for most of the UT day. Solar wind
velocity is expected to remain at elevated levels for the
next 2 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 15 Jun : A K
Australian Region 14 33433223
Darwin 11 33333121
Townsville 14 33433223
Learmonth 16 3343422-
Camden 16 33533113
Canberra 18 33534213
Hobart 18 33534223
Casey(Ant) 14 33333233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 12 (Quiet)
Camden 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gnangara 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 49 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 16 0100 1355
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
17 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
18 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Quiet and Active
over the last 24 hours due to the effects of a co-rotating interaction
region increasing solar wind parameters. Unsettled to Active
conditions are expected to continue for the next 2 days due to
the anticipated recurrent coronal hole that has moved into
geoeffective position. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are forecast
for 18-Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
17 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
18 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jun 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
No data available over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jun -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
17 Jun -5 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
18 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUF's for both Northern AUS/Equatorial and
Southern AUS/NZ regions during local night with otherise mostly
normal HF conditions. Poor ionopspheric support for Antarctic
regions due to minor geomagnetic storm levels over this region
in the last 24 hours. MUF depressions of 10%-30% possible for
mid-high latitude regions for the next 3 days due to the increase
in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jun
Speed: 319 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 25500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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