[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 June 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 15 09:52:22 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JUNE 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Very Low solar activity is expected over the next 3 days with
region 998 decaying over the last 2 days. Solar wind velocity
increased from 310km/s at 1200UT to be ~550km/s at the time of
this report. The increase in the solar wind paramters appears
to be due to a co-rotating interaction region, with no CME activity
and the solar wind temperature and density rising accordingly
with velocity. Bz increased in magnitude to range between +12nT
and -16nT, with a sustained southward period from 1900UT-2100UT
of -15nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at elevated
levels for the next 3 days, with an equatorial positioned coronal
hole that is expected to become geoeffective on 16-Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 14 Jun : A K
Australian Region 12 11112335
Darwin 12 -3112334
Townsville 15 -2222335
Learmonth 16 11112336
Camden 11 10002335
Canberra 10 00002335
Hobart 9 10101235
Casey(Ant) 15 11112236
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 6 (Quiet)
Camden 10 (Quiet)
Gnangara 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 1000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jun 12 Unsettled
16 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
17 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Minor Storm levels
over the last 24 hours due to the effects of a co-rotating interaction
region providing an unexpected rise in solar wind parameters.
Unsettled conditions are expected for the next 3 days with isolated
Active periods as the forecast recurrent coronal hole is also
expected to be in geoeffective position from 16-Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
16 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
17 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jun -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 180% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jun 0 near predicted monthly values
16 Jun -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
17 Jun -5 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Continued enhanced MUF's for Southern AUS/NZ during
local night. Northern AUS/Equatorial regions mostly normal but
with depressed conditions during local day. Isolated enhanced
conditions for Antarctic regions with continued disturbed periods.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with expected
MUF's depressions of 20%-30% for low to mid latitude regions
on 16Jun-17Jun due to an increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 302 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 13200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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