[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 June 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 18 09:07:01 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JUNE 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 18 JUNE - 20 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jun: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours,
expected to continue next 3 days. Solar wind speed remains elevated,
above 600km/s, due to a recurrent coronal hole. Solar wind speed
is expected to remain elevated for the next 2-3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jun: Quiet to unsettled
with an isolated active period.
Estimated Indices 17 Jun : A K
Australian Region 10 23332222
Darwin 7 22231222
Townsville 12 33332322
Learmonth 13 23333332
Camden 8 22332221
Canberra 11 23432221
Hobart 12 22442222
Casey(Ant) 11 333223-2
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 9 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 13 (Quiet)
Camden 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gnangara 52 (Unsettled)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 3223 2344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were generally Quiet to Unsettled
over the last 24 hours with an isolated Active period near 07-10UT.
The elevated activity levels are due to a recurrent coronal hole.
Expect Quiet - Unsettled conditions to persist next 3 days (18-20
Jun) with a gradual return to Quiet conditions. Minor Storm
conditions possible at high latitudes 18 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jun 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jun 0 near predicted monthly values
19 Jun 0 near predicted monthly values
20 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The Australian ionosphere was mostly normal over the
UT day. MUFs were near predicted monthly values or slightly enhanced
(overnight). HF conditions were fair-normal with the exception
of the Antarctic region which saw some significant degradation
as a result of enhanced high latitude activity. Range Spread-F
was again observed in the S.Aus/NZ region overnight as well as
isolated sporadic-E at mid-latitudes. Expect mostly normal HF
conditions and MUFs near predicted monthly values 18 Jun. Some
minor depressions possible 19-20 Jun and continuing poor ionospheric
support in Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jun
Speed: 651 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 223000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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