[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 June 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 11 09:39:29 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JUNE 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 11 JUNE - 13 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jun: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Very Low solar activity is expected over the next 3 days and
new region 998 is not expected to be the source of any notable
flare activity. Solar wind velocity declined from 400km/s at
0000UT to be 380km/s at the time of this report. Bz ranged between
+4/-3nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 3 11112111
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth - --------
Camden 1 10011000
Canberra 1 01011000
Hobart 1 10011001
Casey(Ant) 3 12111111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5 2101 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jun 5 Quiet
12 Jun 5 Quiet
13 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet conditions are expected for the next three days as the
solar wind paramters remain low. No geoeffective coronal holes
are expected for this forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair
12 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair
13 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jun -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 60% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jun -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
12 Jun -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
13 Jun 0 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours for Southern AUS/NZ regions with enhanced MUF's during
local night. Northern AUS/Equatorial regions mostly normal but
with continued depressed conditions during local day. Disturbed
conditions for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jun
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 65100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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