[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 June 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 12 09:30:12 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JUNE 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 12 JUNE - 14 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jun: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Very Low solar activity is expected over the next 3 days. Solar
wind velocity declined from 380km/s at 0000UT to be 320km/s at
the time of this report. Bz ranged between +/-2nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 11211101
Darwin 3 12211011
Townsville 6 22322111
Learmonth - --------
Camden 1 01210000
Canberra 1 01210000
Hobart 2 11111101
Casey(Ant) 2 11211100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 4 1000 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jun 5 Quiet
13 Jun 5 Quiet
14 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet conditions are expected for the next three days as the solar
wind parameters remain low.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair
13 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair
14 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jun -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
No data available over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jun 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
13 Jun 0 near predicted monthly values
14 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours for Southern AUS/NZ regions with enhanced MUF's again during
local night. Northern AUS/Equatorial regions mostly normal but
with depressed conditions after local dawn. Disturbed conditions
for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are expected for the
next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jun
Speed: 370 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 33200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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