[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 June 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 10 09:45:40 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JUNE 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 10 JUNE - 12 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jun: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Similar conditions are expected for the next few days. Solar
wind velocity declined from 450km/s at 0000UT to be 400km/s at
the time of this report.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 21111011
Darwin 2 21011011
Townsville 6 22212122
Learmonth - --------
Camden 1 11001011
Canberra 1 11001011
Hobart 3 11122011
Casey(Ant) 4 22111121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 3221 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jun 4 Quiet
11 Jun 4 Quiet
12 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet conditions are expected for the next three days as the
solar wind velocity is expected to continue to decline. No
geoeffective coronal holes are expected for this forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jun Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal Normal Fair
11 Jun Normal Normal Fair
12 Jun Normal Normal Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jun 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 65% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jun 5 near predicted monthly values
11 Jun 5 near predicted monthly values
12 Jun 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the
last 24 hours for Southern AUS/NZ regions. Similar for
Northern AUS/Equatorial regions but with depressed MUFs
during local day. Disturbed conditions for Antarctic
regions. Similar conditions are expected for all
regions over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jun
Speed: 479 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 95200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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