[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 July 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 20 09:37:40 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JULY - 22 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jul: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jul 21 Jul 22 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to stay at very low levels
today as well. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from
360 to 310 km/s over the UT day today and the north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) stayed
slightly (upto around +3nT) positive for most parts of the
day. Region 1000 (S12E09) produced no significant activity.
Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels for
the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11011011
Darwin 2 11011011
Townsville 6 12221222
Learmonth 4 33001000
Camden 0 01000001
Canberra 0 00001000
Hobart 1 01001001
Casey(Ant) 3 12111111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 9 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2221 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jul 5 Quiet
21 Jul 5 Quiet
22 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels on 19
July and is expected to remain at similar levels on 20 and
21 July. Some enhancements in the activity levels are possible
from 22 July as a recurrent coronal hole is expected to take
a geoeffective position around that time.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
21 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
22 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor degradations and MUF depressions were observed
at times on low latitudes during the last 24 hours, possibly
due to a weak ionosphere as the solar activity continues to
stay at very low levels. Mid-latidute circuits remained less
affected by this phenomenon and the conditions remained mostly
normal, but the high latitudes showed minor to significant
degradations in conditions at some circuits for extended periods
of time today. Similar HF conditions may be expected for the
next two days as no significant variations to the ionospheric
conditions are expected during this period. On the third day
the conditions may show slight more degradations and MUF
depressions due to an anticipated rise in geomagnetic activity
levels from this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jul -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values with periods of
minor to moderate degradations during the local day
times.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Periods of enhancements and minor to significant
degradations in conditions.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jul 0 near predicted monthly values
21 Jul 0 near predicted monthly values
22 Jul -2 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 10% possible.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most parts of Aus/NZ region for the next two days with
the possibility of minor to mild degradations in HF conditions
and depressions in MUFs on the third day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jul
Speed: 417 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 47900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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