[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 July 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 21 09:34:41 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JULY - 23 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jul: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jul: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: The solar wind speed is expected to increase later on
the 21st as a coronal hole rotates into a geo-effective position.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11110011
Darwin 2 12110011
Townsville 5 12212122
Learmonth 1 01110010
Camden 0 01100000
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 1 10100010
Casey(Ant) 4 12211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 1000 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jul 5 Quiet
22 Jul 12 Quiet to unsettled
23 Jul 16 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Activity is expected to increase late on 21st. Isolated
active periods possible on 22nd and 23rd.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jul -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
45% at Vanimo 05-09 UT; no data after 09 UT.Depressions
to 25% at Niue 01-05 UT. Some night spread F and night
sporadic E observed at Niue.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%,
00, 03-07 UT at Darwin and 01-03 UT at Townsville.
Night spread F observed.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 50%
observed at Christchurch 08-17 UT. Night spread F
observed at most stations.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jul -5 Near predicted monthly values
22 Jul -5 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jul -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Occasional depressions to 30% possible. Spread F likely
to to degrade night communications.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jul
Speed: 326 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 32200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list