[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 July 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 19 09:39:02 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JULY - 21 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jul: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jul 20 Jul 21 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to stay at very low
levels today as well. The solar wind speed gradually
decreased from 450 to 350 km/s over the UT day today
and the north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) stayed close to the normal value.
New region 1000 (S13E23) has been numbered today. Solar
activity is expected to stay at very low levels for the
next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 12212011
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 6 22222122
Learmonth 3 2--22000
Camden 2 11112000
Canberra 2 01212000
Hobart 3 01212002
Casey(Ant) 6 23222111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 20 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 2211 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jul 5 Quiet
20 Jul 5 Quiet
21 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions have been
observed during the last 24 hours and is expected to
continue to stay at similar levels for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
20 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
21 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor degradations and MUF depressions were
observed at times on low latitudes during the last 24
hours, possibly due to a weak ionosphere as the solar
activity continues to stay at very low levels. Mid-latidute
circuits remained less affected by this phenomenon and
the conditions remained mostly normal, but the high
latitudes showed minor to moderate degradations in conditions
at some circuites for extended periods of time today.
Similar HF conditions may be expected for the next three
days as no significant variations to the ionospheric
conditions are expected during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jul 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day with
some periods of minor depressions.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values during local day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Periods of some MUF enhancements and depressions
with minor to moderate degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jul 2 near predicted monthly values
20 Jul 2 near predicted monthly values
21 Jul 2 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most parts of Aus/NZ region for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jul
Speed: 486 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 68000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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