[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 July 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 16 09:41:48 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over
the last 24 hours with no active regions on disc. The effect
of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal
hole kept the solar wind stream strengthened keeping solar
wind speed between 550 and 650 km/s with a declining trend
almost the whole today. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between +/-3nT
over most parts of the UT day today. Solar activity is expected
to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 32231112
Darwin 5 22121112
Townsville 9 32232222
Learmonth 8 33321112
Camden 4 22221011
Canberra 6 32231011
Hobart 5 22231011
Casey(Ant) 9 33232122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Camden 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gnangara 47 (Unsettled)
Canberra 42 (Unsettled)
Hobart 52 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 2233 2323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jul 7 Quiet to unsettled
17 Jul 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
18 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed
over the last 24 hours due to the high speed solar wind stream
from the current geoeffective coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to remain mostly at quiet to unsettled levels on
16 July. The conditions are then expected to gradually decline
to mostly quiet with some possibility of unsettled conditions
on 17 July and quiet conditions on 18 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
17 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
18 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations and MUF depressions
were observed on low latitudes during the last 24 hours,
especially during the local day times, possibly due to a
weak ionosphere as the solar activity continues to stay
at very low levels. Mid-latidute circuits remained less
affected by this phenomenon and the conditions remained
mostly normal, but the high latitudes showed minor to
significant degradations in conditions for extended periods
of time today. Besides very low solar activity, a continued
enhancement in the geomagnetic actvity levels on 15 July
seems to have played a role in the degradation of HF conditions
on high latitudes. Similar conditions may be expected on
16 July with some improvement possible on high latitudes
from 17 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jul 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Periods of enhancements and minor to significant
degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jul 0 near predicted monthly values
17 Jul 2 near predicted monthly values
18 Jul 2 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed during the
last 24 hours for most parts of Aus/NZ regions, with Southern
AUS/NZ regions experiencing enhanced conditions during local
night. Similar conditions may be expected for this region
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 675 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 183000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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