[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 July 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 15 09:40:15 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over
the last 24 hours with no active regions on disc. The effect
of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal
hole kept the solar wind stream strengthened keeping solar
wind speed between 650 and 700 km/s almost the whole today.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) fluctuated between +/-4nT over the entire UT day.
Solar wind velocity is expected to remain at elevated levels
for the the next 2 days. Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: Mostly quiet to
unsettled with some active periods.
Estimated Indices 14 Jul : A K
Australian Region 9 22332222
Darwin 6 12322211
Townsville 10 22332223
Learmonth 14 33433312
Camden 8 12332212
Canberra 10 12432222
Hobart 10 22432222
Casey(Ant) 12 23333--2
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 46 (Unsettled)
Alice_Springs 19 (Quiet)
Culgoora 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Camden 59 (Unsettled)
Gnangara 84 (Minor storm)
Canberra 69 (Active)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14 2233 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jul 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible.
16 Jul 8 Quiet to unsettled
17 Jul 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions observed
over the last 24 hours due to the high speed solar wind
stream from the current geoeffective coronal hole. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to remain mostly at quiet to unsettled
levels with isolated active periods on 15 July. The conditions
are then expected to gradually decline to mostly quiet to
unsettled on 16 and mostly quiet on 17 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal-fair Normal Fair
16 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
17 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations and MUF depressions
were observed on low latitudes during the last 24 hours,
expecially during the local day times, possibly due to a
weak ionosphere as the solar activity continues to stay at
very low levels. Mid-latitude circuits remaied less affected
by this phenomenon but the high latitudes showed minor to
significant degradations in conditions for extended periods
of time today. Besides very low solar activity, an enhancement
in the geomagnetic actvity levels on 14 July seems to have
played a role in the degradation of HF conditions on high
latitudes. Similar conditions may be expected for the next
2 days with some improvement possible on high latitudes on
the 3rd day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jul 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Periods of enhancements and depressions observed with
minor to significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jul 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
16 Jul 0 near predicted monthly values
17 Jul 2 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed during the
last 24 hours for most parts of Aus/NZ regions, with Southern
AUS/NZ regions experiencing enhanced conditions during local
night. Similar conditions may be expected for this region
for the next 3 days, but with possible depressed MUF's of
5%-10% for Southern AUS/NZ regions on 15 and possibly 16 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul
Speed: 657 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 199000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list