[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 July 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 14 09:43:39 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul: 65/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over the
last 24 hours with no active regions on disc. Solar wind parameters
remained elevated due to the high speed solar wind stream from
the recurrent coronal hole. Solar wind speed increased from 600km/s
at 0000UT to be ~700km/s at the time of this report. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated
between +/-4nT over the entire UT day. Solar wind velocity is
expected remain at elevated levels for the the next 24 hours.
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the
next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 13 Jul : A K
Australian Region 11 22342322
Darwin 9 -2332222
Townsville 12 -3332332
Learmonth 13 22343332
Camden 12 22442222
Canberra 13 22442322
Hobart 13 21443322
Casey(Ant) 17 33343--3
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 9 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 3 (Quiet)
Culgoora 12 (Quiet)
Camden 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gnangara 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 54 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 21 3554 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jul 12 Unsettled
15 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours due to the high speed solar wind stream from
the current geoeffective coronal hole. Unsettled conditions expected
for 14Jul with possible Active periods. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
expected for 15Jul-16Jul with an expected fall in solar wind
parameters as the coronal hole moves out of geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
15 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jul 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 110% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jul -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
15 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed during the last
24 hours for all regions, with Southern AUS/NZ regions experiencing
enhanced conditions during local night. Disturbed conditions
for Antarctic regions with isolated enhanced periods. Similar
conditions expected for all regions over the next 24 hours, but
with possible depressed MUF's of 10%-20% for Southern AUS/NZ
regions and continued disturbed ionospheric conditions for Antarctic
regions. Mostly normal ionospheric support for all regions expected
15Jul-16Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul
Speed: 605 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 243000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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