[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 July 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 13 09:53:52 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul: 65/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over the
last 24 hours with no active regions on disc. Solar wind parameters
remained elevated due to the high speed solar wind stream from
the recurrent coronal hole. Solar wind speed increased from 450km/s
at 0000UT to be ~625km/s at the time of this report. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) ranged between
+/-10nT for the first half of the UT day, with a sustained southward
period between 04-07UT. Bz then decreased in magnitude to be
fluctuating between +/-4nT at the time of this report. Solar
wind velocity is expected remain at elevated levels for the the
next 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low
levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 12 Jul : A K
Australian Region 15 23444221
Darwin 11 3333320-
Townsville 15 2344322-
Learmonth 21 33455222
Camden 13 23443121
Canberra 17 23454221
Hobart 17 23454121
Casey(Ant) 12 23343222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 8 (Quiet)
Gnangara 20 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 1111 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jul 12 Unsettled
14 Jul 9 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 12 July and
is current for interval 12-13 July. Quiet to Active geomagnetic
conditions observed over the last 24 hours with a Minor Storm
period between 0800-1400UT for mid-high latitudes due to the
high speed solar wind stream from the current geoeffective coronal
hole. Unsettled conditions expected for 13Jul with possible Active
periods. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 14Jul-15Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
14 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jul 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 80% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jul -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
14 Jul -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
15 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed during the last
24 hours for all regions. Northern AUS/Equatorial and Southern
AUS/NZ regions had enhanced conditions during local night, with
Northern AUS regions having depressed conditions during local
day. Disturbed conditions with enhanced periods for Antarctic
regions. MUF depressions of 10%-20% possible for Northern AUS,
Southern AUS/NZ regions for 13Jul-14Jul and coninued disturbed
ionospheric conditions for Antarctic regions. Mostly normal
conditions for all regions expected 15 Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 391 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 91300 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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