[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 July 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 17 09:40:40 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul: 65/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over
the last 24 hours with no active regions on disc. The effect
of a high speed solar wind stream from the recurrent coronal
hole is weakening now as the solar wind speed showed a gradual
decline from 580 to 520 km/s during the UT day today. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz)
fluctuated between +/-2nT over most parts of the UT day today.
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for
the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: Mostly quiet with some
isolated unsettled periods.
Estimated Indices 16 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 12211211
Darwin 4 12211211
Townsville 6 12221222
Learmonth 10 34311212
Camden 4 12211111
Canberra 4 12211211
Hobart 4 02211211
Casey(Ant) 7 23221222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 17 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Gnangara 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 3222 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jul 5 Quiet
18 Jul 5 Quiet
19 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions have been
observed during the 24 hours with some isolated unsettled
periods. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly
at quiet levels for the next 3 days as the coronal hole
effect further weakens through this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
18 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
19 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations and MUF depressions
were observed at times on low latitudes during the last
24 hours, possibly due to a weak ionosphere as the solar
activity continues to stay at very low levels. Mid-latidute
circuits remained less affected by this phenomenon and the
conditions remained mostly normal, but the high latitudes
showed minor to significant degradations in conditions for
extended periods of time today. Besides very low solar
activity, a continued enhancement in the geomagnetic actvity
levels on 16 July seems to have played a role in the degradation
of HF conditions on high latitudes. Slightly better conditions
may be expected on high latitudes for the next 3 days as the
geomagnetic activity is expected to stay at lower level through
this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jul -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Mostly near predicted monthly values during local
night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day with periods
of minor to significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jul 1 near predicted monthly values
18 Jul 1 near predicted monthly values
19 Jul 1 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed during the
last 24 hours for most parts of Aus/NZ regions. Similar
conditions may be expected for this region for the next
3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list