[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 July 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 6 09:34:59 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul: 65/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels for the
last 24 hours and the disc is spotless. The solar wind speed
stayed close to 330 km/s until around 1000UT and then rose
to 400 km/s by 1200UT and stayed between 400 and 420 km/s
during the remaining part of the day. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) stayed positive upto
around +5nT for most part of the day, but stayed negative upto
around -7nT between 0700 and 1200UT. Solar activity is expected
to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: Mostly quiet, some
unsettled periods observed.
Estimated Indices 05 Jul : A K
Australian Region 6 22132111
Darwin - --------
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 7 22132122
Camden 6 22132111
Canberra 4 11032111
Hobart 4 11032111
Casey(Ant) 7 22132122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jul :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1101 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jul 5 Quiet
07 Jul 5 Quiet
08 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels
today. Some unsttled periods were observed mainly between
0800UT and 1200UT when Bz stayed southwards. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to remain mostly at quiet levels
for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
07 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
08 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal on most
locations today with some depressions in MUFs and minor
to significant degradations at times mainly on some low
and high latitude stations possibly due to continued very
low solar activity. Mid-latidues were not that adversely
affected. Spread F and sporadic E were also noticed on some
low latitude stations. Nearly similar HF conditions may be
expected for the next 3 days as no significant ionospheric
variations are expected during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jul -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with periods of
depressions, enhancements and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jul -3 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
07 Jul -3 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
08 Jul -3 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: HF conditions in most parts of Austalian/NZ regions
were mostly near normal with periods of MUF depressions and
degradations in HF conditions possibly due to a weaker
ionosphere due to continued very low solar activity. Nearly
similar HF conditions may be expected for the next three days
as no significant variations are expected in the ionospheric
conditions during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul
Speed: 318 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 26100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list