[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 July 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 7 09:28:52 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels for the
last 24 hours and the disc is spotless. The solar wind speed
gradually decreased from 400 km/s to 360 km/s over the UT day
today. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) stayed close to the normal value almost the whole
day. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11201010
Darwin - --------
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 3 22211010
Camden 1 10101000
Canberra 2 11201000
Hobart 2 11202010
Casey(Ant) 4 22211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Gnangara NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2102 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jul 5 Quiet
08 Jul 5 Quiet
09 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels today
and are expected to remain mostly at similar levels for the
next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
08 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
09 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal on most mid
latitude stations and mostly normal to fair on low and high
latitudes. Minor to moderated depressions in MUFs and minor
to significant degradations in HF conditions were observed
at times on low and high latitude stations possibly due to
continued very low solar activity. Spread F and sporadic E
were also noticed on some low latitude stations. Nearly
similar HF conditions may be expected for the next 3 days
as no significant ionospheric variations are expected during
this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jul -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
with periods of some enhancements during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted montly values with periods of enhancements
and periods of minor to significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jul -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
08 Jul -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
09 Jul -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: HF conditions in most parts of Austalian/NZ
regions were mostly near normal with periods of MUF
depressions and degradations in HF conditions possibly
due to a weaker ionosphere due to continued very low
solar activity. Nearly similar HF conditions may be
expected for the next three days as no significant
variations are expected in the ionospheric conditions
during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 68400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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