[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 July 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 5 09:32:45 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul: 65/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels for the
last 24 hours and the disc is spotless. The solar wind speed
gradually decreased from 340 to 300 km/s by 1500UT and then
showed a relatively rapid rise to 350 km/s by 1800UT. At the
time of this report (2330UT)the solar wind speed is around
340 km/s. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) remained close to the normal value until
around 1500UT and stayed slightly positive there after. Solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the next
3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 01001200
Darwin - --------
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 2 11011200
Camden 2 01001211
Canberra 1 00001200
Hobart 1 01001200
Casey(Ant) 3 01111211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jul :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1100 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jul 5 Quiet
06 Jul 5 Quiet
07 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels today
and are expected to remain mostly at similar levels for the
next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
06 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
07 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal on most
locations today with some depressions in MUFs and minor
to significant degradations at times on some low and high
latitude stations possibly due to continued very low solar
activity. Mid-latidues were not that adversely affected.
Spread F and sporadic E were also noticed on some low
latitude stations. Nearly similar HF conditions may be
expected for the next 3 days as no significant ionospheric
variations are expected during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jul -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced by
25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with periods of
enhancements, depressions and minor to significant
degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jul -4 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
06 Jul -4 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
07 Jul -4 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: HF conditions in most parts of Austalian/NZ
regions were mostly near normal with periods of MUF
depressions and degradations in HF conditions possibly
due to a weaker ionosphere due to continued very low
solar activity. Nearly similar HF conditions may be
expected for the next three days as no significant
variations are expected in the ionospheric conditins
during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 24000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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