[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 July 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 4 09:37:57 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul: N.A.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels for the
last 24 hours and the disc is spotless. The solar wind speed
remained between 320 km/s and 340 km/s almost the whole UT
day today. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) remained close to the normal value almost
the whole day today. Solar acivity is expected to remain at
very low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11101100
Darwin 2 1111110-
Townsville 5 1221221-
Learmonth 1 21000100
Camden 0 00000100
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00000100
Casey(Ant) 3 11111111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 2100 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jul 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
05 Jul 5 Quiet
06 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels today
and are expected to remain mostly at similar levels for the
next 3 days with some possibility of isolated unsettled
conditions on 04 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
05 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
06 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal on most
locations today with some depressions in MUFs and minor
to significant degradations at times on some low and high
latitude stations possibly due to continued very low solar
activity. Spread F and sporadic E was also noticed on
some low latitude stations. Nearly similar HF conditions
may be expected for the next 3 days as no significant
ionospheric variations are expected during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jul -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Some periods of depressions around 15% during local
day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% at times during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Periods of depressions and enhancements with minor to
significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jul -2 near predicted monthly values
05 Jul -2 near predicted monthly values
06 Jul -2 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions in most parts of Austalian/NZ
regions were mostly normal with periods of MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions possibly due to a weaker
ionosphere due to continued very low solar activity. Some
enhancements were also noticed at times on some locations.
Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for the next
three days as 'not much variation' is expected in the
ionospheric conditins during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: 387 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 31400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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