[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 July 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 4 09:37:57 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul: N.A.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jul             05 Jul             06 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    66/0               66/0               66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels for the 
last 24 hours and the disc is spotless. The solar wind speed 
remained between 320 km/s and 340 km/s almost the whole UT 
day today. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field (Bz) remained close to the normal value almost 
the whole day today. Solar acivity is expected to remain at 
very low levels for the next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 03 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11101100
      Darwin               2   1111110-
      Townsville           5   1221221-
      Learmonth            1   21000100
      Camden               0   00000100
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   00000100
      Casey(Ant)           3   11111111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3   2100 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jul     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible. 
05 Jul     5    Quiet 
06 Jul     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels today 
and are expected to remain mostly at similar levels for the 
next 3 days with some possibility of isolated unsettled 
conditions on 04 July. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
05 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
06 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal on most 
locations today with some depressions in MUFs and minor 
to significant degradations at times on some low and high 
latitude stations possibly due to continued very low solar 
activity. Spread F and sporadic E was also noticed on 
some low latitude stations. Nearly similar HF conditions 
may be expected for the next 3 days as no significant 
ionospheric variations are expected during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
03 Jul    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Some periods of depressions around 15% during local
      day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% at times during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Periods of depressions and enhancements with minor to
      significant degradations. 

Predicted Monthly T index for July:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jul    -2    near predicted monthly values 
05 Jul    -2    near predicted monthly values 
06 Jul    -2    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions in most parts of Austalian/NZ 
regions were mostly normal with periods of MUF depressions 
and degradations in HF conditions possibly due to a weaker 
ionosphere due to continued very low solar activity. Some 
enhancements were also noticed at times on some locations. 
Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for the next 
three days as 'not much variation' is expected in the 
ionospheric conditins during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: 387 km/sec  Density:    0.3 p/cc  Temp:    31400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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