[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 July 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 3 09:38:26 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels for the
last 24 hours and the disc is spotless. The solar wind speed
gradually decreased from 410 km/s to 340 km/s over the UT day
today. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) remained close to the normal value almost the whole
day today. Solar acivity is expected to remain at very low
levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11111001
Darwin 2 11111001
Townsville 6 22222112
Learmonth 1 11110000
Camden 0 01000000
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 0 10010000
Casey(Ant) 4 12211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2221 2102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jul 5 Quiet
04 Jul 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
05 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels today
and are expected to remain mostly at similar levels for the
next 3 days with some possibility of isolated unsettled
conditions on 04 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal on most
locations today with some depressions in MUFs and minor
to significant degradations at times on some low and high
latitude stations possibly due to a weaker ionosphere due
to continued very low solar activity. Nearly similar HF
conditions may be expected for the next 3 days as no
significant ionospheric variations are expected during
this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jul -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values with periods of MUF
depressions and minor to significant degradations in
HF conditions.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted montly values with periods of MUF
depressions and minor to significant degradations in
HF conditions.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jul -2 near predicted monthly values
04 Jul -2 near predicted monthly values
05 Jul -2 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions in most parts of Austalian/NZ
regions were mostly normal with periods of MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions possibly due to a weaker
ionosphere due to continued very low solar activity. Nearly
similar HF conditions may be expected for the next three
days as 'not much variation' is expected in the ionospheric
conditins during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 440 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 69800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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