[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 July 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 2 09:36:55 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JULY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels for the
last 24 hours and the disc is spotless. As anticipated, the
recurrent coronal hole effect further weakened today. The
solar wind speed gradually decreased from 470 km/s to 400 km/s
over the UT day today. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained close to the
normal value almost the whole day today. Solar acivity is
expected to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: Mostly quiet, some
unsettled periods observed.
Estimated Indices 01 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 22223100
Darwin 6 22223110
Townsville 8 2223321-
Learmonth 7 22234000
Camden 4 21123000
Canberra 5 22223000
Hobart 5 22223001
Casey(Ant) 6 22223111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 6 (Quiet)
Camden 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gnangara 65 (Active)
Canberra 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2220 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jul 5 Quiet
03 Jul 5 Quiet
04 Jul 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels
today with some unsettled periods observed between 1200 and
0300UT on some mid and high latitude locations. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to remain mostly at quiet levels for
the next three days with possibility of some unsettled
periods on 04 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal on most
locations today with some depressions in MUFs on low and
some mid-latitude locations during the local day hours.
Periods of minor to moderate degradations were also observed
on some high latitude locations. HF conditions are expected
to remain similar for the next 3 days as no significant
ionospheric variations are expected during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jul -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values with periods
of minor to moderate MUF depressions.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted montly values with periods of
enhancements and periods of minor to significant
degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jul 1 near predicted monthly values
03 Jul 1 near predicted monthly values
04 Jul 0 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions in most parts of Austalian/NZ regions
were mostly normal with periods of MUF depressions during
the local day time. Similar conditions are expected for the
next three days as 'not much variation' is expected in the
ionospheric conditins during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 482 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 98800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list