[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 June 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 1 09:35:43 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JUNE 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jul 02 Jul 03 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 65/0 65/0 65/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels for the
last 24 hours and the disc is spotless. As anticipated, the
recurrent coronal hole effect further weakened today. The
solar wind speed gradually decreased from 500 km/s to 460 km/s
over the UT day today. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field showed minor (upto approx +/-4 nT)
fluctuations throughout the day, staying slightly southwards
for relatively longer intervals of time. Solar acivity is
expected to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 21112121
Darwin 3 21111111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 22112220
Camden 2 11011111
Canberra 2 11011120
Hobart 3 11112110
Casey(Ant) 7 22222123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2312 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jul 5 Quiet
02 Jul 5 Quiet
03 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels
today and are expected to remain at similar levels for the
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal on most
locations today with some depressions in MUFs on low
and some mid-latitude locations during the local day
hours. Periods of minor to moderate degradations were
also observed on some high latitude locations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jun -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with periods of enhancements
and periods of minor to moderate degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jul 2 near predicted monthly values
02 Jul 2 near predicted monthly values
03 Jul 2 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions in most parts of Austalian/NZ regions
were mostly normal with periods of MUF depressions during
the local day time. Similar conditions are expected for the
next three days as 'not much variation' is expected in the
ionospheric conditins during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 475 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 103000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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