[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 June 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 1 09:35:43 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JUNE 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jul             02 Jul             03 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    65/0               65/0               65/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels for the 
last 24 hours and the disc is spotless. As anticipated, the 
recurrent coronal hole effect  further weakened  today. The 
solar wind speed gradually decreased from 500 km/s to 460 km/s 
over the UT day  today.  The  north-south  component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field showed minor (upto approx +/-4 nT) 
fluctuations throughout the day, staying  slightly southwards 
for relatively longer  intervals of time.  Solar acivity is 
expected to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 30 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21112121
      Darwin               3   21111111
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            5   22112220
      Camden               2   11011111
      Canberra             2   11011120
      Hobart               3   11112110
      Casey(Ant)           7   22222123
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             3   (Quiet)
      Hobart               5   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   2312 1123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jul     5    Quiet 
02 Jul     5    Quiet 
03 Jul     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels 
today and  are expected to remain at similar levels for the 
next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal on most 
locations  today with some depressions in MUFs on low 
and some  mid-latitude locations during the local day 
hours. Periods of minor to moderate degradations were 
also observed on some high latitude locations. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
30 Jun    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with periods of enhancements 
      and periods of minor to moderate degradations. 

Predicted Monthly T index for June:   5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jul     2    near predicted monthly values 
02 Jul     2    near predicted monthly values 
03 Jul     2    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions in most parts of Austalian/NZ regions 
were mostly  normal  with periods  of MUF depressions during 
the local day time. Similar  conditions are expected for the 
next three days as 'not much  variation' is  expected in the 
ionospheric conditins during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 475 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   103000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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