[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 January 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 22 10:29:00 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to stay at very low levels
today as well. The effect of the coronal hole also continued
to diminish. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 590
to 500 km/s over the UT day today. The north south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) stayed close to the
normal value for most part of the UT day today. Solar disc
remains currently spotless and solar activity is expected to
continue to stay at very low levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 22222222
Darwin 6 21222122
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 7 22222222
Camden 7 2322211-
Canberra - --------
Hobart 5 22222111
Casey(Ant) 13 4-432222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1321 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jan 5 Quiet
23 Jan 4 Quiet
24 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field was mostly quiet for the last
24 hrs. The effect of the recurrent coronal hole has
dimished further. The geomagnetic activity is expected
to stay mostly at quiet levels for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations over the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jan -22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jan 0 near predicted monthly values
23 Jan 1 near predicted monthly values
24 Jan 1 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
across Aus/NZ regions for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jan
Speed: 607 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 153000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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