[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 January 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 21 10:45:10 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar disc currently spotless and solar activity expected
to be very low. Recurrent coronal hole has mostly dissipated
and the segments at geoeffective latitudes have rotated over
the limb. Vsw steadily decreased from 660 to 560 km/sec over
the UT day. Vsw should reuturn to normal in a day or two.
Interplanetery
Magnetic Field Bz oscillated north-south with no southward period
much over 2 hours. However By was greater than Bz early and late
in the UT day, conducive to IMF-geomagnetic merging.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 12322122
Darwin 6 12222122
Townsville 9 23322222
Learmonth 6 12222122
Camden 6 22312121
Canberra - --------
Hobart 5 02312111
Casey(Ant) 10 ---33222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 1133 3312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jan 5 Quiet
22 Jan 5 Quiet
23 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet with only a few Unsettled
periods over the 24 hrs at mid and equatorial latitudes. The
effect of the recurrent coronal hole has virtually passed. Field
should be mainly Quiet in the next 3 days unless significant
duration IMF-geomagnetic merging occurs. Polar latitudes had
active to Minor/Major Storm conditions at some stations, early
and late in the UT day, caused by enhanced IMF-geomagnetic merging
due to IMF By exceeding Bz in magnitude.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions expected to return
to normal over next 3 days as recurrent coronal hole effect is
removed. MUFs may be slow to recover due to lack of sunspots
and ionising radiation. Some spread F may be expected to linger.
Polar latitude recovery will depend on the amount of polar cap
convection caused by IMF-geomagnetic field merging with extended
Bz south or high By values.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jan 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jan 0 Below monthly values by (day/night); 5/10% for
northern Australia; 5/5% for southern Australia;
5/10% for equatorial; 0/0% for Antarctica.
22 Jan 5 Below monthly values by (day/night); 0/5% for
northern Australia; 0/5% for southern Australia;
0/5% for equatorial; 0/0% for Antarctica.
23 Jan 5 Below monthly values by (day/night); 0/5% for
northern Australia; 0/5% for southern Australia;
0/5% for equatorial; 0/0% for Antarctica.
COMMENT: Extensive spread F again widely observed at all latitudes,
but paticularly equatorial. Sporadic E (Es) also widespread.
HF conditions and MUFs are expected slowly normal across most
part of the Aus/NZ regions over the next three days. Recovery
will be slow due to lack of sunspot activity and MUFs should
remain slightly below monthly averages. At equatorial latitudes
the typical delayed post geomagnetic disturbance (from coronal
hole) enhancements or depressions in MUF near dawn or dusk may
occur.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 626 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 183000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list