[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 January 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 20 10:21:25 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to remain at very low
levels today as well. The coronal hole effect is still
keeping the solar wind stream strong as the solar wind
speed remained between 600 and 650 km/s almost the whole
UT day today. The effect of this coronal hole may continue
on 20 January as well, although it is likely to be experienced
intermittenly due to the shape of the coronal hole. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) showed minor fluctuations (between +/-4 nT) on both
sides of the normal value almost the whole day today. Solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the
next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 22233322
Darwin 9 21233312
Townsville 10 22233322
Learmonth 12 32233422
Camden 10 12233332
Canberra - --------
Hobart 10 12333322
Casey(Ant) 14 ---43322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 61 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 3331 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Jan 6 Quiet
22 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly
at quiet to unsettled levels on 20 January due to some possible
effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole
that is now moving out of the geoeffecive position. Geomagnetic
activity is then expected to gradually decline to mostly quiet
levels on the following two days i.e. on 21 and 22 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations for the next three days with some possibility
of minor degradations in HF conditions and minor depressions
in MUFs on 20 January at high latitudes due to some possible
enhancement in geomagnetic activity levels on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jan -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jan -2 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%.
21 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values
22 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions and MUFs are expected to remain mostly
normal across most part of the Aus/NZ regions for the next
three days with some possibility of minor degradations in
conditions and minor depressions in MUFs at times on 20 January
at some southern Aus/NZ circuits due to some possible enhancements
in geomagnetic activity levels on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: 651 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 192000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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