[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 January 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 23 10:11:38 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jan 24 Jan 25 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to stay at very low
levels today as well. The solar wind speed gradually
decreased from 500 to 420 km/s over the UT day today.
The north south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) stayed close to the normal value for most part
of the UT day today. Solar disc remains currently spotless
and solar activity is expected to continue to stay at very
low levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 11211121
Darwin 4 12111112
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 4 11101222
Camden 2 111010--
Canberra - --------
Hobart 2 11101011
Casey(Ant) 7 2-321221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jan 4 Quiet
24 Jan 4 Quiet
25 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field was quiet for the last 24 hrs.
The effect of the recurrent coronal hole has dimished. The
geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at quiet
levels for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations over the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jan -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jan 0 near predicted monthly values
24 Jan 0 near predicted monthly values
25 Jan 0 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
across Aus/NZ regions for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 542 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 121000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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