[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 January 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN

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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan:  76/14

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jan             12 Jan             13 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              70/5

COMMENT: A coronal hole is now located at central meridian. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22221211
      Darwin               4   22111211
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            6   22122212
      Camden               4   12211111
      Canberra             4   12211111
      Hobart               4   12221111
      Casey(Ant)           8   ---32222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   3221 1011     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jan     5    Quiet 
12 Jan     5    Quiet 
13 Jan    20    Quiet to active with the possibility of isolated
                minor storm periods.

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field is expected to become disturbed 
on 13 January due to the effects of a coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
10 Jan    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30% at
      Vanimo 10-20 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
      11-20 UT. Some sporadic E observed.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25% 10-18
      UT. Sporadic E observed with blanketing of the F region
      much of the time at Canberra and Sydney.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30% at
      Macquarie Is. 12-16 UT.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
12 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
13 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 

COMMENT: Longer distance HF sky wave communications may be affected 
at times due to sporadic E formation. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+08   (high fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jan
Speed: 551 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:   148000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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