[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 January 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 12 10:12:01 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: A single spot was noted by Holloman Solar Observatory
at south 06 just east of the central meridian at 1600UT 11 Jan,
no other spots noted on the sun. The solar wind is presently
at approximately 400 km/s and is expected to remain at this level
for the UT day. However, expect an increase in the solar wind
around mid day on 13 January, rising to around 600km/s. The
interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between +/-4nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 21121111
Darwin 3 21111111
Townsville 6 22221221
Learmonth 3 21120110
Camden 3 11111111
Canberra 1 11110010
Hobart 2 11111010
Casey(Ant) 9 3--32122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 2001 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jan 2 Quiet
13 Jan 20 active
14 Jan 17 active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 11 January and
is current for interval 13-14 January. The geomagnetic field
is expected to become disturbed on 13 January due to the effects
of a high speed solar wind stream induced by a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal
13 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
14 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jan -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jan -5 near predicted monthly values
13 Jan -5 near predicted monthly values
14 Jan -30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
COMMENT: Brisbane, Hobart, Nuie, Norfolk Is., and Sydney all
showed sporadic E thoughout the UT day 11 January. Vanimo and
Townsville showed sporadic E during the daylight hours and Macquarie
Is. showed sporadic E in the early morning hours. Expect isolated
cases of sporadic E to continue. Mild depressions are likely
to occur on 14 January due to expected geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:28%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jan
Speed: 481 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 96400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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