[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 February 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 FEBRUARY - 23 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Feb:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Feb             22 Feb             23 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. The present 
coronal hole wind stream appears to be in decline. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22221211
      Darwin               5   21221212
      Townsville           8   23222222
      Learmonth            7   32232201
      Camden               5   22221201
      Canberra             4   22221101
      Hobart               5   22221201
      Casey(Ant)          11   3-432211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart              37   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   3332 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Feb     6    Quiet 
22 Feb     4    Quiet 
23 Feb     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were generally quiet with isolated 
unsettled intervals. Active periods observed at high latitudes 
only following a sustained period of mildly negative bias in 
solar wind Bz component. Solar wind speed declined gradually 
over the UT day. Expect mosty quiet conditions next three days. 
Unsettled intervals possible, mainly day one. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Feb    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Feb     0    near predicted monthly values 
22 Feb    -5    5 to 10% below predicted monthly values 
23 Feb    -5    5 to 10% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Periods of widespread sporadic E conditions and variable 
depressions to 30% observed Aus region during local day/evening. 
Occasional sporadic-E and spread-F conditions observed Antarctic 
region. Otherwise HF conditions mostly normal. Variable depressions 
possible Equatorial/Aus regions next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A0.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Feb
Speed: 607 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   174000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"