[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 February 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 22 10:02:34 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Feb 23 Feb 24 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. The present
coronal hole wind stream appears to be in decline.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 11123321
Darwin 5 11122212
Townsville 10 22233322
Learmonth 6 11123320
Camden 7 11123321
Canberra 8 11133321
Hobart 6 11123311
Casey(Ant) 10 3--23321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 2331 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Feb 5 Quiet
23 Feb 4 Quiet
24 Feb 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was generally quiet. There was
an unsettled period around the mid part of the UT day following
a sustained period of mildly negative bias in solar wind Bz component.
Expect mosty quiet conditions next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Feb Normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Feb 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Feb 5 near predicted monthly values
23 Feb 0 near predicted monthly values
24 Feb -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: Localised variable depressions observed N/Central Aus
latitudes during local day. Spread-F conditions at times S Aus
region. Occasionally intense sporadic-E observed local
afternoon/evening at some low-latitude stations. Variable
depressions possible Equatorial/Aus regions next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A0.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Feb
Speed: 540 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 131000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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