[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 February 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 20 10:11:09 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Feb: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. A recurrent
coronal hole may increase the solar wind speed on Feb 20-21.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Feb : A K
Australian Region 10 22333222
Darwin 8 21323222
Townsville 11 32333222
Learmonth - --------
Camden 9 22333211
Canberra 9 22333211
Hobart 9 22333211
Casey(Ant) 15 3-433332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 1124 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remained elevated at about 600 km/s
over the UT day. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled
with active to minor storm periods at high latitudes only. Expect
similar conditions days one and two declining on day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Feb 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Variable depressions after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
21 Feb 0 near predicted monthly values
22 Feb -5 5 to 10% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Intervals of sporadic E observed N Aus and S Ocean/Antarctic
regions. Variable depressions to 40% observed after local dawn
N/Central Aus regions. Otherwise HF conditions mostly normal.
Disturbed periods possible at high latitudes next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A0.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Feb
Speed: 522 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 131000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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