[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 February 08

Wed Feb 20 10:11:09 EST 2008

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Feb:  72/8

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Feb             21 Feb             22 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. A recurrent 
coronal hole may increase the solar wind speed on Feb 20-21. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   22333222
      Darwin               8   21323222
      Townsville          11   32333222
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Camden               9   22333211
      Canberra             9   22333211
      Hobart               9   22333211
      Casey(Ant)          15   3-433332

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12   1124 3333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Feb     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remained elevated at about 600 km/s 
over the UT day. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled 
with active to minor storm periods at high latitudes only. Expect 
similar conditions days one and two declining on day three. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
19 Feb     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Variable depressions after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Feb     0    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Feb     0    near predicted monthly values 
22 Feb    -5    5 to 10% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Intervals of sporadic E observed N Aus and S Ocean/Antarctic 
regions. Variable depressions to 40% observed after local dawn 
N/Central Aus regions. Otherwise HF conditions mostly normal. 
Disturbed periods possible at high latitudes next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A0.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Feb
Speed: 522 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:   131000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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