[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 February 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Feb:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Feb             20 Feb             21 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. A recurrent 
coronal hole may increase the solar wind speed on Feb 20. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 18 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   21234323
      Darwin               8   21124222
      Townsville          12   22234323
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Camden              11   21224323
      Canberra            12   21234323
      Hobart              10   21224322
      Casey(Ant)          12   3--33223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Hobart              44   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1122 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed commenced a minor upward trend over 
the second half of the UT day. A brief interval of active conditions 
was observed around 12 UT. Otherwise conditions were quiet with 
isolated unsettled to active periods at high latitudes. A recurrent 
coronal hole may produce isolated unsettled to active intervals 
over the next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Feb    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressed to 30%
      after local dawn at Niue. 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Feb    -8    5 to 10% below predicted monthly values 
20 Feb     0    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Feb    -7    5 to 10% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Intervals of sporadic E was observed N Aus and S Ocean 
regions. Depressions to 30% possible at times Aus/NZ regions. 
Disturbed periods possible at high latitudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A0.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Feb
Speed: 536 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:   109000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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