[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 February 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 15 10:26:44 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. Solar wind
speeds continue to be elevated due to a coronal hole solar wind
stream. Solar wind speeds are expected to begin decreasing today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Feb : A K
Australian Region 9 22223133
Darwin 8 22123132
Townsville 11 22233233
Learmonth 11 32223233
Camden 8 22223132
Canberra 8 22223132
Hobart 10 22323133
Casey(Ant) 15 3--43233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 45 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 2232 4322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Feb 8 Quiet to unsettled
16 Feb 6 Quiet
17 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible at high latitudes today.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Feb 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Occasional night time
depressions to 30% observed at Darwin and Brisbane.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
observed at some stations 10-19 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
30% observed at Casey.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
16 Feb 6 Near predicted monthly values
17 Feb 6 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Occasional sporadic E and night time spread F were
observed at most locations. Depressions in MUFs to 30% are
possible at times at all latitudes. Sporadic E formation
expected to continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed: 638 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 177000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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