[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 February 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 14 10:26:36 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. Solar wind
speeds continue to be elevated due to a coronal hole solar wind
stream. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain elevated today,
decreasing on the 15th.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: Mostly quiet to
unsettled.
Estimated Indices 13 Feb : A K
Australian Region 11 22333322
Darwin 10 22323322
Townsville 11 22323332
Learmonth 15 32424332
Camden 9 22333221
Canberra 10 22333321
Hobart 11 23333321
Casey(Ant) 18 4-533222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Feb :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Hobart 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 11 2333 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Feb 12 Mostly unsettled
15 Feb 8 Quiet to unsettled
16 Feb 6 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Isolated active periods and minor storm levels at high
latitudes possible on the 14th.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Feb 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements at Vanimo
07-19 UT and depressions to 30% at Niue 10-12 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depresssions to 30% at
Brisbane 01-04 UT and Townsville/Brisbane 13-16 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
25% at Hobart 00 UT and 15-19 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
15 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
16 Feb 6 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions in MUFs to 30% are possible at times at
all latitudes. Sporadic E observed at times at southern Australian
stations and higher latitudes, occasionally obscuring the F region.
Sporadic E formation expected to continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Feb
Speed: 660 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 173000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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