[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 February 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 16 10:09:16 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. The SOHO spacecraft
shows a CME commencing around 0942UT 15 February, however appears
to be due to activity on the backside of the sun. The ACE spacecraft
shows the solar wind to be approximately 620 km/s at this time
and will most likely remain elevated today. It is expected to
decrease to around 400 km/s by the end of day 17 February. The
Interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between +/- 5nT over
the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 15 Feb : A K
Australian Region 11 22334222
Darwin 9 22224212
Townsville 12 22334232
Learmonth 14 22235322
Camden 11 22334222
Canberra 11 22334221
Hobart 14 33334321
Casey(Ant) 16 4--34223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 45 (Unsettled)
Hobart 111 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15 2121 3154
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Feb 12 Unsettled
17 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible at high latitudes today,
otherwise expect quiet to unsettled conditions today and tomorrow.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: A mild disturbance in the geomagnetic field may hinder
HF propagation slightly.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Feb -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
17 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
18 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Occasional sporadic E and night time spread F were observed
at most locations. Sporadic E formation expected to continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A0.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 645 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 171000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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