[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 February 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 11 10:48:46 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Feb: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk is currently spotless. Solar
wind speeds increased to approximately 700 km/s during the past
24 hours as a coronal hole solar wind stream impacted the Earth.
Solar wind speeds are expected to remain elevated over the next
24-48 hours and then decline slowly.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 10 Feb : A K
Australian Region 18 23334434
Darwin 13 22334323
Townsville 18 23334434
Learmonth 20 22334435
Camden 18 13334434
Canberra 18 13334434
Hobart 18 13434424
Casey(Ant) 23 34544333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 47 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 2012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Feb 15 Mostly unsettled with isolated active periods
and storm levels at high latitudes.
12 Feb 12 Unsettled
13 Feb 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The anticipated coronal hole solar wind stream impacted
the Earth during 10 February resulting in mostly unsettled to
active levels with storm periods at high latitudes. Isolated
active levels are possible during 11 February with storm levels
possible at high latitudes. Conditions should return to mostly
unsettled to quiet levels by 12 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Feb 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced greater than 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values to depressed 15%
during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to depressed 15%.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Feb -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
12 Feb -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
13 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Sporadic-E and/or Spread-F conditions were observed
at times at some of the Aus/NZ region stations during the past
24 hours. Sporadic-E and/or Spread-F are again expected at times
across the Aus/NZ region for 11 February. The observed increase
in geomagnetic activity only resulted in slight depressions,
otherwise conditions were mostly normal to enhanced for 10 Feb.
MUF depressions of 10-20% are possible at times during 11 February,
otherwise mostly near predicted monthly values are expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Feb
Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 62600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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