[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 February 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb:  72/8

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Feb             13 Feb             14 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: The visible solar disk is currently spotless. Solar 
wind speeds continue to be elevated due to a coronal hole solar 
wind stream. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain elevated 
over the next few days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: Mostly quiet to
unsettled with isolated active periods. 

Estimated Indices 11 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   33243312
      Darwin              12   23243312
      Townsville          13   33243322
      Learmonth           18   33254323
      Camden              12   33243212
      Canberra            13   33243312
      Hobart              13   33343212
      Casey(Ant)          17   4--43323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            7   (Quiet)
      Canberra            85   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              67   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             18   0232 4533     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Feb    12    Mostly unsettled
13 Feb    12    Mostly unsettled
14 Feb    12    Mostly unsettled

COMMENT: Possible isolated active periods and minor storm levels at
high latitudes over the next three days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
11 Feb    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
      30% observed at Vanimo 18-20 UT and Niue 01-05 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
13 Feb     0    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Feb     0    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Sporadic E observed at times at all latitudes, occasionally 
obscuring the F region. Sporadic E formation expected to continue. 
Depressions in MUFs to 30% are possible at times at all latitudes. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 577 km/sec  Density:    8.0 p/cc  Temp:   291000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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