[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 February 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 10 10:38:59 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 FEBRUARY - 12 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Feb: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk is currently spotless. Solar
wind speeds increased slightly during the past 6 hours and are
presently above 420 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected to continue
to increase to mildly elevated levels during 10 February as a
coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 22112122
Darwin 5 21112122
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 12112122
Camden 5 11113122
Canberra 4 11013121
Hobart 4 11113111
Casey(Ant) 10 33332122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2011 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Feb 15 Mostly unsettled with isolated active periods
and storm levels at high latitudes.
11 Feb 12 Unsettled
12 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 7 February and
is current for interval 9-10 February. The anticipated coronal
hole solar wind stream has not yet impacted Earth and is now
expected to arrive during 10 February. Active levels are possible
during 10 February with storm levels possible at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Feb 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Feb -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
11 Feb -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
12 Feb 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 7 February
and is current for interval 9-10 February. Sporadic-E and/or
Spread-F conditions were observed at times at some of the Aus/NZ
region stations during the past 24 hours. Sporadic-E and/or Spread-F
are again expected at times across the Aus/NZ region for 10 February.
The anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity did not eventuate
during 9 February and HF conditions remained mostly normal. MUF
depressions of 10-20% are possible at times during 10 February
with the anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity. Mostly
near predicted monthly values are otherwise expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Feb
Speed: 414 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 40800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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