[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 February 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 9 10:31:33 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk is currently spotless. Solar
wind speeds increased slightly during the past 24 hours up to
approximately 440 km/s and are presently approximately 380 km/s.
Solar wind speeds are expected to increase to mildly elevated
levels during 9-10 February as a coronal hole rotates into a
geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 22221122
Darwin 4 21121112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 7 22122223
Camden 5 21221122
Canberra 5 21221122
Hobart 4 22211111
Casey(Ant) 10 3-332222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2200 0202
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Feb 20 Mostly unsettled to active with storm periods
possible at high latitudes.
10 Feb 15 Mostly unsettled with isolated active periods
and storm levels at high latitudes.
11 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 7 February and
is current for interval 9-10 February. Active levels are expected
during 9-10 February as a coronal hole rotates around into a
geoeffective position. Storm levels are possible at high latitudes
9-10 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Feb 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Feb -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
10 Feb -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
11 Feb 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 7 February
and is current for interval 9-10 February. Sporadic-E and/or
Spread-F conditions were observed at times at some of the Aus/NZ
region stations during the past 24 hours. Sporadic-E and/or Spread-F
are again expected at times across the Aus/NZ region for 9 February.
MUF depressions of 10-20% are possible at times during 9-10 February
as the result of an anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity.
Mostly near predicted monthly values are otherwise expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 68500 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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