[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 February 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 4 10:15:23 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 FEBRUARY - 06 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Active region 10982 remains the only spot group on the
sun. A recurrent coronal hole is geoeffective and the associated
high speed solar wind stream that is presently around 600 km/s.
Expect the solar wind to remain at this level today (4 Feb) and
to start to slowly decrease tommorrow. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) has fluctuated between
+/- 5nT over the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 03 Feb : A K
Australian Region 15 23343333
Darwin 11 22243322
Townsville 15 23343333
Learmonth 15 32343333
Camden 13 23342332
Canberra 14 23343332
Hobart 12 233-----
Casey(Ant) 19 4--43333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Hobart 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 19 4532 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Feb 12 Unsettled
05 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Feb 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Expect an unsettled level of geomagnetic activity with
isolated cases of active levels today (4 Feb).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: A mild disturbance in the geomagnetic field may hinder
HF propagation slightly.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Feb -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 10 during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 10% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 10% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Mostly near predicted monthly values for the ,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed 10-15% during the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Feb 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
05 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
06 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Noted variable cases of Sporadic E (Es) through out
the Australian region. Expect Es to continue to be present for
most of the Australian region for the next several days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Feb
Speed: 603 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 212000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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