[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 February 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 5 10:44:50 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Active region 10982 remains the only spot group on the
sun. Solar wind speeds have continued to decline over the past
24 hours and are presently approximately 480 km/s. Solar wind
speeds are expected to continue to decline slowly over the next
24-48 hours. A faint CME observed by the STEREO spacecraft, most
likely due to a disappearing solar filament, is not expected
to be geoffective.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Feb : A K
Australian Region 9 32232222
Darwin 5 21122212
Townsville 9 32232222
Learmonth 8 31132222
Camden 7 22232221
Canberra 7 22231221
Hobart 5 221-----
Casey(Ant) 13 4--32232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 3233 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Feb 6 Quiet
07 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the next few
days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Feb 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values to
depressed 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to depressed 10-15%.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Feb 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
06 Feb 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
07 Feb 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: Sporadic-E conditions were observed at times at most
of the Australian region stations. Sporadic-E is again expected
at times across the Aus/NZ region for the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Feb
Speed: 605 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 220000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list