[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 February 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 3 10:34:23 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 FEBRUARY - 05 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Feb: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Feb 04 Feb 05 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Active region 10982 remains the only spot group on the
sun. A recurrent coronal hole is geoeffective and the associated
high speed solar wind stream is presently around 600 km/s.
Expect the solar wind to remain at this level for the next two
days and start to decrease on day 3. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) has fluctuated between
+/- 5nT over the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 02 Feb : A K
Australian Region 12 24323223
Darwin 8 23223122
Townsville 12 14323223
Learmonth 12 3332-233
Camden 8 2332-122
Canberra 11 2432-222
Hobart 11 24321---
Casey(Ant) 21 -5-43233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 18 3233 2454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Feb 12 Unsettled
04 Feb 12 Unsettled
05 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Expect an unsettled level of geomagnetic activity with
isolated cases of active levels for the next 3 days due to a
high speed solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: A mild disturbance in the geomagnetic field may hinder
HF propagation slightly.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Feb 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 10% during UT day.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during UT day,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 10% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Feb 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
04 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
05 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Noted Sporadic E (Es) through out the Australian region.
Expect Es to continue to be present for most of the Australian
region for the next several days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Feb
Speed: 566 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 233000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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