[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 February 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 2 10:13:38 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z FEBRUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Active region 10982 remains the only spot group on the
sun. A recurrent coronal hole is geoeffective and the associated
high speed solar wind stream has increased from 450 to 600 km/s
over the last 24 hours. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) has fluctuated between +/- 8nT
over the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Feb : A K
Australian Region 14 33332333
Darwin 10 23222233
Townsville 13 23332333
Learmonth 17 33332344
Camden 12 23322333
Canberra 14 33332333
Hobart 15 33332343
Casey(Ant) 22 45-32334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Hobart 51 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 0000 1233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Feb 12 Unsettled
03 Feb 12 Unsettled
04 Feb 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Expect an unsettled level of geomagnetic activity with
isolated cases of active levels for the next 3 days due to a
high speed solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: A mild disturbance in the geomagnetic field may hinder
HF propagation slightly.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Feb 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during UT day,
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 10% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Feb 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
03 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
04 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Sporadic E (Es) was noted at Sydney and Vanimo during
the local day and sunset hours. Brisbane, Darwin, Learmonth,
Hobart, Macquarie Is. and Norfolk Is. showed variable Es most
of the UT day. Expect Es to continue for most of the Australian
region for the next several days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 347 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 52200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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