[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 January 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 1 10:22:24 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z JANUARY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Feb             02 Feb             03 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Active region 10982 remains the only spot group on the 
sun. ACE spacecraft shows a Corotating Interaction Region (CIR) 
followed by a highspeed stream increase from 350 to 450 km/s 
due to a coronal hole reaching its geoeffective position. The 
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) 
was mostly near neutral until approximately 1200UT when it started 
flucuating between +/-7nT and for the last couple hours has remained 
southerly at about -5nT. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 31 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   11122333
      Darwin               8   21012333
      Townsville           9   12222333
      Learmonth           10   10022443
      Camden               7   10111333
      Canberra             7   10022333
      Hobart               5   11012232
      Casey(Ant)          13   33222343
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   1200 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Feb    18    active 
02 Feb    12    Unsettled 
03 Feb    12    Unsettled 

COMMENT: Expect unsettle to active level of geomagnetic activity 
for the next 3 days due to a high speed solar wind stream effects 
with a possibility of isolated minor storm levels. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Jan     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Feb    12    near predicted monthly values 
02 Feb     0    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
03 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Sporadic E (Es) was noted at Brisbane, Sydney, Hobart, 
Macquarie Is., and Vanimo during the local day and and sunset 
hours. Nuie, Darwin, Learmonth, Norfolk Is., and Townsville showed 
variable Es most of the UT day. Expect Es to continue for most 
of the Australian region for the next several days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 383 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    68700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list