[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 December 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 DECEMBER - 29 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Dec:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Dec             28 Dec             29 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
The solar wind is at normal levels and is expected to remain 
at normal levels for the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 26 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22111111
      Darwin               3   21101112
      Townsville           6   22212221
      Learmonth            2   21001111
      Camden               2   12001111
      Canberra             1   11000111
      Hobart               2   12101011
      Casey(Ant)           9   3-331122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0001 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Dec     2    Quiet 
28 Dec     2    Quiet 
29 Dec     2    Quiet 

COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected for the next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
26 Dec   -14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Variable conditions during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:   0

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Dec   -20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
28 Dec   -20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
29 Dec   -20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 28 was issued on 25 December 
and is current for interval 26-28 December. Expect depressions 
of 10 to 30% most likely at local night for equatorial and northern 
Australian regions. Isolated cases of sporadic E noted at most 
stations. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Dec
Speed: 468 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:    90200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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