[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 December 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 28 10:07:56 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Dec 29 Dec 30 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
The solar wind is presently at normal levels and is expected
to increase on 30 December due to a recurrent coronal hole. LASCO
C3 imagery showed a weak expulsion of material from the north-east
limb of the sun first noted at 0542UT 27 December, should not
be geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 2 11101102
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 4 21112111
Camden 3 12101111
Canberra 1 10001111
Hobart 2 11101111
Casey(Ant) 8 23322212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 9 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 1000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Dec 2 Quiet
29 Dec 2 Quiet
30 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected for the next two days.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels
on 30 December due to an increase in the solar wind speed.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Dec -28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Dec -25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
29 Dec -25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
30 Dec -25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 28 was issued on 25 December
and is current for interval 26-28 December. Expect depressions
of 10 to 30% most likely at local night for equatorial and northern
Australian regions. Isolated cases of sporadic E noted at most
stations.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Dec
Speed: 404 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 51600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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