[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 December 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 26 10:03:29 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z DECEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Dec: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Dec 27 Dec 28 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
The solar wind has returned to normal levels and is expected
to remain at normal levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 21122121
Darwin 5 11122122
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 21023121
Camden 3 11122011
Canberra 3 11022011
Hobart 4 11113111
Casey(Ant) 12 3-333232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2312 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Dec 2 Quiet
27 Dec 2 Quiet
28 Dec 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Dec -18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Dec -25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
27 Dec -25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
28 Dec -25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 28 was issued on 25 December
and is current for interval 26-28 December. Expect depressions
of 10 to 30% most likely at local night for equatorial and northern
Australian regions. Isolated cases of sporadic E noted at most
stations.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Dec
Speed: 493 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 118000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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